林行止's 的頭像

《信報財經新聞》創辦人

朝鮮半島暫保平安 商戰近中美鬧離婚

《信報》林行止專欄:一、

昨天本報金融版頭條新聞〈中美貿易戰隨時一觸即發〉,點出了新年面對的世界頭等大事!新聞指出「特朗普失耐性」,當然是事實,因為他期盼中國以言文說服及以經濟手段制裁北韓令其放棄發展核武,早已落空。已自稱「核武大國」的北韓,不會對北京言聽計從,而北京亦不想迫人太甚,令北韓掉轉核子彈頭,因此才有「公海送油」,被美國衞星「影得真確」的一幕……

特朗普政府的對華政策,與奧巴馬政府視中國為友善的競爭對手,南轅北轍,一如特朗普去月十八日發表第一份「國安戰略」(NSS)指陳,中國正在試嘗取代美國在印太地區的地位,那將嚴重影響美國在區內的政經利益。特朗普說得如此露骨,等如把奧巴馬苦心建立的「中美利加」關係丟進垃圾桶!事實上,特朗普對中國不懷好意,早於他去年「隆重版國事訪問」中國後,甫登上回程專機便展現,筆者據他當時的言論,作〈中美利加陰霾密布……〉一文(十一月十七日),這種看法,與當時外國傳媒的主流看法背馳(內地媒體當然全面看好中美關係),以受特朗普訪華時與習近平主席「老友重逢相談甚歡」及雙方簽署了約合二萬億港元的「商業協議」這類好消息的感染,主流傳媒看好中美關係,不足為奇。然而,事實絕非如此。

朝鮮半島局勢高危,路人皆見,不過,基於美國不願見南北韓統一的底線(統一的韓國肯定不會走宿敵世仇日本投靠美國老路,而會與中國結盟,等於美國失去一個圍堵中國的重要橋頭堡)!筆者因此相信戰火不易點燃;證諸金正恩的「元旦賀詞軟硬兼施向韓國伸出橄欖枝」,其將派遣運動員參加二月舉行的平昌冬奧,令南韓總統文在寅馬上提出下周二(一月九日──整整一個月後平昌奧冬揭幕)舉行兩國峰會的提議……以金正恩的善變,沒人知道南北韓會否直接對話及能否談出結果,但就憑金正恩這句話︰「我們是血脈相連的民族,對於同胞舉辦的活動給予幫助,是應份之事。」平昌冬奧令朝鮮半島短期內無戰爭,幾可肯定。

(節錄)

所有評論

星斗市民 - 2018年01月03日 06:42

金肥仔改穿老西,又伸出橄欖枝要參加今屆冬奧,證明金肥仔已轉性,穿老西表示仍崇尚西方,轉趨斯文形象,雖然口硬說核武嗰掣係佢枱面,隨時㩒掣;但諗深一層,美俄早已控制全球九成核武,邊有得打。要落台就最好拉南韓落水,大家係同祖宗,話晒容易話為。人民無得食,國庫又空空如也,出句聲南韓實幫手。金肥仔想分化美韓關係當然落空,長期依賴中共而受控制當然唔會甘心,靠攏自己人較安全得多,更何況牌面大過南韓,討價還價都大聲啲。仲有金肥仔係NBA迷,美國有機會用藍球外交,但中國嘅兵乓外交就無行囉。

PBrega - 2018年01月03日 11:19

中朝藕斷絲連,癫雞又來將軍抽車。
南韓附庸,得失自己知。

L

Liberphile - 2018年01月03日 15:36

Washington would be ill-advised to treat Beijing as a

trustworthy partner in reining in recalcitrant Pyongyang.

Despite Beijing's support of recent tough UN sanctions

against Pyongyang, one must not rule out the possibility

that it's all a game of deception played by Beijing in

cahoots with Pyongyang for weakening Washington's

resolve to use overwhelming military force to neutralize,

once and for all, Pyongyand's neuclear capabilities before

they reach the stage beyond Washington's control.  There

is little doubt that Pyongyang is Beijing's attack dog and

acts as a counterweight to powerful American influence in

Asia.  Beijing will never abandon Pyongyang because it is

an integral part of Beijing's master strategy in competing

with Washington for global dominance.  The Washington

Free Beacon has obtained a Chinese internal party

document with credible evidence that confirms Beijing's

desire to make sure that Pyongyang will remain an

unmitigated nuclear threat to Washington.

 

Secret Document Reveals China Covertly Offering

Missiles, Increased Aid to North Korea

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/secret-document-reveals-china-covertly-offering-missiles-increased-aid-north-korea/

Chinese Internal Party Document Obtained by

the Washington Free Beacon

http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PRC-Document-1.pdf

trybest - 2018年01月03日 17:28

金正恩這句話︰「我們是血脈相連的民族,對於同胞舉辦的活動給予幫助,是應份之事。」
---------------------
.....血脈相連的民族....,對這樣的語句,港人應該不陌生了,對此, 會不會有港人感到切膚之痛?
北韓專制政權不會轉性, 就如同中共, 只不過也是專制政權在不利形勢下的扮可憐,擺低姿態而已,一旦得勢,又是一條毒蛇.
金正恩目前就如同一個又窮,又惡,又無賴的親戚, 或許與南韓接觸, 只是為了騙得接濟,恐怕注定南韓所期望是得不到滿足,最多讓北韓虛與委蛇,時間一長,南韓恐怕仍是會失望.
在北韓的欺騙及不斷苛索下, 南北韓這種表面友好,恐怕維持不了多長時間,只不過南韓生活安定美好,卻又國小力弱,或許明知北韓兩面三刀,也只能無奈地希望盡量將和平局面拖延下去,畢竟朝鮮半島出現戰事,除中共大陸,南韓也是覆巢之卵.而俄羅斯的意願或許一半半,打擊中共,壓制中共大陸勢頭,俄羅斯恐怕是很樂見,但失去北韓,直面美國西方勢力,又是一個弊端,有利有弊,也就可能以觀望為主.
南韓只是美國附庸,南韓不願意也無可奈何,就如中共一樣, 又窮又惡又無賴親戚得勢時,卻絕不會念什麼血脈相連,南韓不能不托庇於美國,故此,南北韓的表面友好期長短將取決於美國的戰略部署.

JKwok9 - 2018年01月03日 17:30

[而北京亦不想迫人太甚,令北韓掉轉核子彈頭,因此才有「公海送油」,被美國衞星「影得真確」的一幕。。。。]
有時分析新聞報導都幾有趣。
總是有人在說謊。

雖然不能確定誰說謊,但不能盡信。
只能當知道有這報導,存個記錄。
 

JKwok9 - 2018年01月03日 17:31

"......on Tuesday the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo cited unidentified South Korean government officials as saying U.S. reconnaissance satellites have spotted Chinese ships transferring oil to North Korean vessels some 30 times since October in seas off China. That report was picked up by some U.S. media outlets, including Fox News.

China's foreign ministry has defended its enforcement of U.N. sanctions against North Korea. A ministry spokeswoman said Wednesday she had no information about the latest report, but said China has strictly enforced trade restrictions.

The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that report. But in a commentary Thursday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged Beijing to exert "decisive economic leverage" on Pyongyang.

"China has applied certain import bans and sanctions, but it could and should do more," he wrote in The New York Times........
.......
........
Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned six North Korean shipping and trading companies and 20 of their vessels, and published photos of what it said was a North Korean vessel on Oct. 19 possibly transferring oil to evade sanctions. The statement did not specify whether Chinese vessels were involved in the transfer."
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-china-oil-north-korea/2017...

JKwok9 - 2018年01月03日 17:34

*newspaper Chosun Ilbo cited unidentified South Korean government officials。。。。。。

*That report was picked up by some U.S. media outlets, including Fox News.

*China's foreign ministry has defended。。。。。

*The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that report.

根本無證據

JKwok9 - 2018年01月03日 17:40

哈哈,香港都有份!

China slams Trump’s ‘pointless hype’ over claims it is helping North Korea skirt UN sanctions

".....“The recent series of reports on this situation do not conform with the facts”, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said, adding that Beijing did not allow its “citizens or companies to engage in any activities that violate” UN resolutions.
..
.......
“We have evidence that some of the vessels engaged in these activities are owned by companies in several countries, including China,” the senior official said.

Separately, a foreign ministry official in Seoul said Friday that a Hong Kong-registered vessel was seized and inspected in November for transferring oil products to a North Korean ship in breach of UN sanctions....."
http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/china-slams-trumps-pointless-hype-over...

PBrega - 2018年01月04日 02:31

Since Taiwan is not the UN member, Taiwan can sell the commodity to whomever they want to. I don't think the US can complain about it since Taiwan does not need to comply with UN resolution.

PBrega - 2018年01月04日 02:51

The vessel was registered in Hong Kong, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the vessel is owned by Hong Kong people or firms. UN never give any details on how to apply the sanction on NK, and how to invoke that resolution.

PBrega - 2018年01月04日 03:01

South Korea can do nothing since they are naive enough to think that they can buy peace from North and they are still willing to swallow those bitter fruit of their stupidity.

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