習廣思's 的頭像

資深投資者。金融打滾數十年,樂意與讀者分享投資心得。

「雙戰」威脅未解除 錢莊績優無力托

《信報》信筆攻略: 美國三大銀行股周五(13日)公布業績,首季盈利均勝預期,美股早市先升後回軟。老特如果唔搞咁多嘢,讓股民回歸基本因素,則道指有機會借業績期扭轉劣勢【圖1】,但若然業績表現理想都無法扭轉大局,則麻煩矣。
 
美國三大銀行股摩根大通、花旗,以及富國周五晚上公布的首季度業績均勝過市場預期。今年首季金融市場十分波動,散戶嚇到半死,但銀行炒房見波動則風生水起,摩通的交易業務進賬唔少,其中股票交易收入上升了26%,債券交易收入亦增加8%,全季集團的整體盈利有87億美元,按年多35%。炒房業績有好轉,資金好快就湧去炒起摩根士丹利及高盛,因為這兩間華爾街大行一向炒賣業務都好大。

市場起伏大 炒房風生水起

據摩通對2018年的盈利計算,已高於2017年高峰三分之一,其中包括了減稅的得益,行政總裁戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)話今年會把部分盈利投資於科技,興建新總部及增設400間分行。銀行業乃百業之母,銀行資產負債表強勁,放貸亦會鬆手點,這將有利整體的經濟增長動力。

微觀企業盈利增長可觀,但老特的政策仍會引發不少動盪,投資也最好取一個平衡,不應全情投入。美國打唔打敍利亞?中美貿易戰如何演變?兩大疑慮還是懸而未決。有人會話這些都只是噪音,還是聚焦於經濟前景及企業盈利更實際,而且特朗普五時花六時變,很難跟着他的推文做投資決定。不過,狼來了的故事教訓大家狼始終會來,狼一來就會雞飛狗走。

(節錄)
 

所有評論

黎自立 - 2018年04月14日 09:21

股票pe低派息高的好股票,狼來了也不一定雞飛狗走,還要參考當時金錢是否仍舊充裕,供樓人士也許忽然之間失業,引至現鈔短缺,畢菲德之流卻永遠現鈔充足,靜候機會大量買入。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月14日 10:13

慘!終於要打起來了!

Syria airstrikes: Donald Trump announces military action against Assad regime with UK and France
"America, Britain and France have launched airstrikes against the Syrian regime to punish its chemical attack that killed more than 70 people.

Donald Trump announced the joint operation in a television statement at 9pm, saying the strikes would target the regime’s ability to use chemical weapons. "
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/14/syria-airstrikes-donald-trum...

JKwok9 - 2018年04月14日 10:20

看來不再打一次世界大戰,死一半人,那些野心家都不會住手。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月14日 10:29

UK directly involved in staging chemical attack in Syria's Douma - Russian Military

(????)

The Russian Defense Ministry accused Britain of staging a fake chemical attack in the Syrian town of Douma last weekend
"The Russian Defense Ministry has substantial evidence that a planned provocation was carried out in Douma on April 7 to mislead the international community. Its true purpose is clear to everyone today - to provoke the United States to launch missile strikes against Syria," ministry's spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said at a news briefing.

"There are also other proofs at the disposal of the Russian Defense Ministry that testify to the direct involvement of Great Britain in organizing this provocation in Eastern Ghouta," Konashenkov stressed.

According to the spokesman, representatives of the Al-Qaida-linked 'White Helmets' were under enormous pressure from London to carry out the chemical weapons provocation in Syria's Douma. White Helmets founded by the former British army officer and military contractor Le Mesurier..........

https://news.sol.org.tr/uk-directly-involved-staging-chemical-attack-syr...

Barwon - 2018年04月14日 17:19

橋唔怕舊,初指擁化學武器,再指擁大殺傷力武器,待目標人物被剷除後方稱原來是一場誤會。

正道 - 2018年04月15日 08:58

今次化武疑雲可能是反政府軍一手一腳自編自導,目的是綁住美國佬不讓他們輕易抽身,顯然並非空穴來風。當然,美國人並非真正關心敍利亞平民的人權狀況,而是關心敍國總統到底「親俄」還是「親美」,如果是後者,殘酷鎮壓自然可以披上「反恐戰爭」的漂亮外衣。但還是那個問題,假如敍利亞變成另一個阿富汗,美國人耗不起,退了又不甘心讓俄國人安枕無憂,搞空襲遂成了中間落墨之道。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月15日 09:22

Netanyahu praises US strikes in Syria, warns about Iran
"JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu coupled praise for U.S.-led strikes on Syrian targets on Saturday with a warning that Iran’s presence there further endangers Syria.
.....
........
An Israeli official said Israel was notified of the strikes ahead of time. Asked how much warning Israel had received, the official told Reuters: “Between 12 and 24 hours, I believe.”
....
Iran’s involvement in Syria in support of Assad has alarmed Israel, which has said it will counter any threat. The armed Iranian-backed Shi’ite movement Hezbollah, which has an extensive missile arsenal, last fought a war with Israel in 2006.

Syria, Iran and Russia say Israel was behind an air strike on a Syrian air base on Monday that killed seven Iranian military personnel, something Israel has neither confirmed nor denied.

On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Netanyahu and urged him to do nothing to destabilize Syria, according to a Kremlin statement."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-israel/netanyahu...

JKwok9 - 2018年04月15日 09:30

敍利亞局勢非常複雜。香港傳媒一向亦少報導及分析,我們所知實在有限。
現時較為明顯的是美國及以色列不光要對付敍利亞,還涉及伊朗及真主黨。
美國下一步可能會撕毁與伊朗的核條約。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月15日 09:44

Israel Wages a Growing War in Syria
"。。。。。。。。。
Israeli strategy has shifted “as we realized that the Syrian civil war has been decided—and the victors are Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, as well as Assad,” Itamar Rabinovich, the president of the Israel Institute, the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, and Israel’s former chief negotiator with Syria, told me. “Hezbollah and Iran have now embedded in bases in Syria, and they have recently become much bolder.”

“We are facing now a determined decision by Iran to take advantage of the vacuum in Syria, the coming victory of Assad, and the defeat of ISIS to extend Hezbollah’s stand in Lebanon at the expense of Syrian territory, especially in the Golan Heights,” Amos Gilead, a retired Israeli major general who now heads the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, told me. “This is a strategic threat. It’s an intolerable plan. We are trying to preëmpt them and protect Israel.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/israel-wages-a-growing-war-in-s...

Barwon - 2018年04月15日 11:13

先指俄羅斯用化學武器暗殺異己,是巧合還是屈人之兵?警告俄羅斯有黑材料在手,勿插手阻攔。明顯英、美政府民望勢弱,藉此顯示其有為,不知法國為何要參與。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月15日 13:08

法國一直都有參與敍利亚內戰。

Macron 上場後,一直都有提到如果敍利亚使用化武,法國會以人道理由發動攻擊。

" Macron: 'France will strike' if use of chemical weapons in Syria is proven
 13 February 2018 • 9:51pm

President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that "France will strike" if chemical weapons are used against civilians in the Syrian conflict in violation of international treaties, but that he had not yet seen proof this was the case.

Macron said last May that the use of chemical weapons would represent a "red line". In a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday he expressed concern over signs that chlorine bombs had been used against civilians in Syria.

"On chemical weapons, I set a red line and I reaffirm that red line," Macron told reporters. "If we have proven evidence that chemical weapons proscribed in treaties are used, we will strike the place where they are made."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/13/macron-france-will-strike-us...

e

eddybb - 2018年04月15日 13:21

法國是敍利亞前宗主國,有不少投資在敍利亞,像total這間石油公司就有不一少投資在敘利亞。可能香港人對total有點陌生,但在歐洲可到處看到total石油和石油有關化學產品。

法國政府若不出兵保護其國家公司投資,從石油產利益定必被英美瓜分。

今天法國出兵不是第一次,回顧七年前阿拉伯乜春,法國也有參與出兵敘利亞。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月15日 13:28

這是兩年前的一些分析。不一定可信。但有閱讀價值。

"Why the US, France and Britain are destroying Syria
5 Dec, 2015

 Since Russia stepped up to the plate, suddenly western countries can’t wait to bomb ISIS. Are they now there to get the job done? Or are they there to stop Russia increasing its influence, and to make sure it doesn’t succeed where they failed?

The world is falling over itself to bomb Syria.

The following statement from Reuters summarizes the situation: “Most of the world's powers are now flying combat missions over Iraq and Syria against Islamic State. But any consensus on how to proceed has been thwarted by opposing policies over the 4-year-old civil war in Syria, which has killed 250,000 people, driven 11 million from their homes, left swathes of territory in the hands of jihadist fighters and defied all diplomatic efforts at a solution.
。。。。。。。。
。。。。。
The real reason for this war

I’m going to simplify things: the Plan for a New American Century – a document which was created by neoconservative warmongers in or close to power under George Bush Jr. – listed countries which it wanted the US to attack, namely: North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria.。。。。。。。”
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/324853-us-france-britain-syria/

e

eddybb - 2018年04月15日 13:31

像伊拉克,雖然是石油輸出國家,但出售石油這巨大任務,就雖要俄京和美帝公司包辦。

管他總統是由普選還是美俄篩選,其反對派必然得到敵對大佬罩著提供細殺傷力武器。

JKwok9 - 2018年04月15日 13:41

2014年9月,以美國為首的多國聯軍開始空襲敘利亞境內的伊斯蘭國。
俄則是在2015年9月取得敍政府軍同意才加入掃蕩伊斯蘭國的。

普京可能睇了一年戲,覺得應該是時候出手。

如今伊斯蘭國已被掃走,美軍再無借口留在敍利亞。

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