余錦賢's 的頭像

《信報》香港脈搏作者。

樓價心理戰

《信報》香港脈搏:「上帝要你滅亡,必先令你瘋狂!」香港的樓市是否到了瘋狂失控狀態,迫令政府今天不得不出手加以遏抑?且看今早財政司司長曾俊華在他的第三份《財政預算案》有何分解。

去年特首曾蔭權在《施政報告》中說到「會日日睇住樓市」,有需要時會出手。而過去四個月,政府實情也是多次出手、或者出口,希望樓市氣氛可以冷卻下來,然而,樓市卻未見冷靜,相反樓價不斷挑戰新高,諸如上周開盤的元朗YOHO MIDTOWN平均呎價去到五千二百元,本周一將軍澳賣地「麵粉價」每方呎已去到四千六百元,拍得住、甚至趕過了同區二手樓的樓價。

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所有評論

金鋒 - 2010年02月24日 09:52

在亞洲,有消息稱,日本央行將於4月份終止多項經濟刺激舉措。多個亞洲經濟體昨日發佈強勁的經濟增長資料,這也進一步增強了市場對政策退出的預期。亞洲的經濟復蘇步伐比美國大概超前了兩個季度,當美國正在密鑼緊鼓準備採取退出市場的措施的時候,亞洲地區包括澳洲的政府也在同步採取收縮過多的銀根的步驟。即是說,資金會逐步抽緊,利率也會上升。
特別是中國,糧食價格、肉類價格、奶類品價格上半年將有百分之十左右的上升,這是驚人的漲幅,必然影響內地的民生和消費,中國將會加快控制通脹的措施,特別是抽緊銀行準備金,全力控制樓宇價格,增加福利房的供應。香港的房間不能不受影響,如果特區政府不採取措施,大陸的資金會繼續流入香港購買房屋,繼續推高樓價,所以香港的措施一定與大陸的措施同步進行,才能收到效果。如果特區政府不做事,不行動,將會犯嚴重的大錯。老太爺已經發出了訊號,曾蔭權不要再麻木遲鈍。

遊民 - 2010年02月24日 11:33

香港有近四十萬百萬富翁, 平均資產(cash + 扣除樓按既物業)達$950萬, 假若十份一百萬富翁為炒家, 樓價焉有不升, 不瘋狂之理, 剩係呢四十萬人, 不論炒樓或在港消費, 已足夠製造歌舞昇平的景象...

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 11:49

其實樓宇和股票,便是制做富翁的機器和生產線.
香港這兩條全世界一流的生產機器,使香港富裕過人,
師奶富婆多過富翁,便是因為女人多時間投資,耐力持久,所以香港寰有什麼唔好,您在香港,even沒文化,沒學歷,沒關係,沒有錢,沒工作,只要想辦法找到首期資金(不一定要自己全擁有),便可以在投資世界打天下,成功機會超高,只要有師奶般的耐心,百萬富翁,千萬富婆便大量在生產線制做出來.
而因為富人多,香港服務業便大把生意,稅務局盤滿碟滿,福利有了來源,窮小朋友可以讀書.
香港不要再浪費時間在想如何做工廠,根本只會輸死政府和投資人.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 11:55

香港人認清:

香港只要提供服務給中國富婆,香港富婆,亞洲富婆,生意已經做唔切.

人才人手有一天是不足夠.

香港做生意/做人/想富裕,要認清本身強處,和weakness.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 12:02

其實d人投訴樓市貴的人,未買樓,主要是唔夠膽,不是首期做不到,供不出instalments,,只是成日等平d和市場穩固,邊可以如此.
市場不會reward這類思想的精明人士.

投資要忘掉自己是叻人,最好傻氣大,反而成功.

Wendy-Chan - 2010年02月24日 12:32

Honestly, the purpose of buying property is for investment that can make big money.

遊民 - 2010年02月24日 12:59

同意, 幾位30尾40頭的朋友, 十年來不停炒樓, 身家已足夠供完兩個仔女外地升學, 再預留一筆錢比仔女創業, 兩夫婦退休後生活及醫療等, 日日照返工為打發時間...

AI - 2010年02月24日 13:33

唔係好同意咁多個大佬...
經濟學 d 口號, 在下只同意一條:「天下沒有免費午餐」...

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 13:41

A1兄,其實免費午餐真是有的,而且很多.
大部份私人住宅業主,半生居住費用昤是0,而且送早茶,午餐,晚飯,太多了,您現在,在香港茶樓見到剛剛坐下的很多這一種人.
我不評論好醜,只說人生.

AI - 2010年02月24日 13:42

不如咁吖, 人小小地, 我有個家傳尿壺, 作價一萬賣比你地,
我賺咗一萬, 同你買番你個家傳馬桶,
大家d 馬桶, 尿壺 升咗值, 不如唔駛返工啦.

AI - 2010年02月24日 14:01

小學生 兄咁正經, 好啦, 在下又正經 d.
同意 -『投訴樓市貴的人,未買樓, 主要是唔夠膽』
不同意 - 『不是首期做不到, 供不出instalments, 只是成日等平d和市場穩固..』
1) 供不出instalments, -- 係銀行未必借, 若家庭融洽, 不少人是家庭融資的. 但破碎家庭就...
2) 係銀行未必借, -- 就係未來收入不穩定.
所以, 所謂免費午餐, 其實是外資信貸, 信貸收縮, 就要埋單.

AI - 2010年02月24日 14:04

『唔夠膽』- 就是沒有未來收入折現, 可供融資.

s

speakman - 2010年02月24日 14:22

咁就將香港嘅長處放大佢喇,學足日本東京, 一個白鴿窿的空間用足三代人孭, 自然通街億萬富嬰啦!

O

OmNaMo - 2010年02月24日 14:58

金鋒兄, 何以大陆收紧银银根, 会再有钱跑到香港来炒楼? 在下只是不明白, 请指教! 多谢!

ac241428 - 2010年02月24日 16:10

firstly, thanks for 小學生 and Sota 前輩's views, which make me understand(at least i think so) the question

"why so many people see 炒樓和炒票 and high property price as evil but the world is still like that"

this question had bothered me for long time and i only understand it now.

And I want to share my understanding so that people can corret me if I had misunderstood.

firstly, to make money, no matter individual/company have to create something which other people want to buy.

However, due to technology advance/cheap labour coming from poor countries, tangible/consumption goods become over supply.

And, people/company cannot made more money by producing more tangible/consumption goods.
This lead to economy slowdown and more unemployment.

Then, some genious come up with the idea of selling something which is not for consumption but for wealth storage, which are stocks and property.

The fundamental difference between consumption and wealth storage goods are:
for consumption good, the lower price the higher sales
for wealth storage good, the higher price the higher demand.

So, if we need to go on the business of selling wealth storage goods, we need their price be rising.

So the govts keep printng money to make the stock/property market rising.

And, wealthy/poor gap is the nature of captilism.

Of course, the gap can be narrowed by govt. realloaction, like Europe. However, such reallocation would reduce competitiveness.

But with globalization, there is always someone compete in lower price.

So, to sacrify competivenss for narrower wealth/poor gap do not work.

Actually, 馬克思 knew the outcome of capitalism well before. It's just his alternative is even worse.

So, practically, there is no way out until poor country become not poor or new theory can be developed.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 16:22

241428兄,很同意您的見解.
其實A1兄的(("家傳尿壺, 作價一萬賣比你地"))是最佳教科例子,
人本是光條條來這世界,而世界有可見的,不可見的,

可99%人理解和相信的,可1%人理解和相信的,

金融和交易,只要閣下,,,當是人類宗教行為的一種,便明白神的確存在,人是摸不著頭腦的.

而且堅持自己先對,其他是(錯),人間其實很有趣,我喜歡交易行為,主要是人的本質會101%交足出來獻給大地和上天,使我們感恩.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 16:27

""何以大陆收紧银银根, 会再有钱跑到香港来炒楼""

只要您相信上述,便錯到底了.

未來,只可以是平錢和信貸在人間通街走的時代,而且是10年,20年.

只要您相信上述,便可興家.

不可能解釋,只是心得經驗談.

當然,我和您一樣,只是平凡人.

Sota - 2010年02月24日 16:34

U are welcome lar!

We are MIDDLE CLASS shits (surely will never be UPPER SOCIETY!) keep on BS here!

About your "theory", interesting but sorry to say very wrong if you are talking about economics.

If the gov't really prints more $$$, it will lead to high aggregate demand, which will push up prices of NOT only disposable goods (consumption goods under your article) but also capital goods such as real estate property and even commodities.

One hidden assumptin U are wrong is you think inflation will not be reflected in wages. It will eventually! If inflation is too high in a country (eg. Vietnam), public may give up its currency and trade in other hard currencies such as USD or even gold (it is still the case in Vietnam to buy a property by paying nothing but GOLD!).

Talking about K. Marx., he has good wishes but his "theories" are ALL wrong. His first assumption that socialism could replace capitalism is wrong, assumping humans are selfishless. I think no need for me to repeat what happened in most communist countries after World War II to before the collapse of the USSR!

Indeed, when I was a student I did not refer to a system as whether communism or capitalism, as the definition is pretty rough and unclear. We talked about market mechanism and how good are the foundation for market mechanism. It is evident in most Eastern European countries general welfare standards have increased significantly in the past two decades, and so is China and even Vietnam!

The problem of "capitalism" (if there is a pure one!) in the USA is NOT about the market mechanism. It is about the failure in monitoring and control. What I am hinting is that YES! democracy can and do lead to terrible outcomes. That is what we just saw in 2008 and 2009. It is Bill Clinton to pass regulations to allow banks to lend to low class or the poor so that they could have their own houses (and vote for the DP!). It is Greenspan who lowered the int. rates so much so that the economy could grow further (hence the President would be re-elected by voters and would also re-elect him as the head of the FED!).

Indeed I would rather say that the appearing "democratic" society in the West have at least equal amount of problem as in China. The truth is indeed some Western countries are learning lessons from China!

My understanding is humans are always evil, be under whatever economic and political systems.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 17:11

""Indeed I would rather say that the appearing "democratic" society in the West have at least equal amount of problem as in China. The truth is indeed some Western countries are learning lessons from China!""
很同意,妙句.

ac241428 - 2010年02月24日 17:38

小學生 and Sota 前輩, thanks for your comment

It's a pity that mainstream meida/education never give views like yours to the public.

A lot of people(incl. myself) wasting a lot of time to read/learn things which do not reflect the reality of our world.

By the way, 小學生前輩's comment:
未來,只可以是平錢和信貸在人間通街走的時代,而且是10年,20年.

I also thought about this question.
To me, interest is the cost of borrowing.
And the purpose of borrowing is for either spending or investing.

Since most people in the world have had their necessities fullfilled ,
pepole should not have very strong hard demand.
(ie. people would not be eagar enough to pay high interest for the purpose of spending)

In this regard, I also believe cheap money will always be there (of course not always as cheap as now but should not be above 3%)

To pay high interst for investing, I will only do that:
if return is high or
inflation is so high to create negeative real interest or
currency become so valueless.

So complicated and have no idea.

Sota - 2010年02月24日 17:45

boom and busted! The ever truth in both the property and the stock market.

greed and fear. now you fear and not IN property. once you IN you become greed. The more you IN the more greedy U become!

Sota - 2010年02月24日 17:56

Another of my wild guss is attempted twist in human nature and reality will lead to disasters. The larger the twist the larger the disaster!

e.g. all human equal in wealth. Result? all dying as we saw in the former USSR or China before the adoption of market economy!

e.g. even the poor and the lowest class should have their houses. Result? the invention of sub-prime loans, complicated CDOs, SIVs to lure others to IN such garbages, and eventually the terrible global fin. cirsis.

e.g. all students should receive tertiary education and should have degrees! Result? The stupid education system we have now. Naive graduates (Yes I am referring to the 80s) who think that bababa we are U graduates and we ba ba ba should earn at least that much... Result? high unemployment rate of the youth. Frankly in a society there will always a lot who do the dirty jobs who clean the toilet and who collect trashes!

e.g. mandating 85,000 unit per annum in HK. Result? ha ha you know I know lar!

e.g. all the sick should be well taken care of, free of charge! Result? the HK Hospital Authority and their suck performance!

What I learn is there is NO FREE LUNCH, not even FREE BREAKFAST!

The world is as it is (one way or the other). There will be rich, average and poor. Some will succeed, some mediocre and some suck. Some U graduates get dream jobs, while a lot will let down. The rich will get the most pretty girls. The average get the average girls and the low class get the low class girls. Hard to be heard but sorry that is the reality I come to face!

There is NO paradise on earth. For those who look for paradise, grab the Bible and imagine!

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 18:17

at least,we have free knowledge from you .

AI - 2010年02月24日 18:21

"for the sake of argument" -- just a glimpse of the first example.
-- e.g. all dying as we saw in the former USSR or China before the adoption of market economy. Cause? NOT all human on earth equal in wealth. Right?

AI - 2010年02月24日 18:25

哈哈哈, 玩下啫.
博學之、審問之、慎思之、明辨之、篤行之.
我 AI 博學唔敢, 審問有膽, 慎思有趣, 明辨無才, 篤行無恆.
都係玩下啫.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 18:34

哈哈哈, 得閒便多來玩下,大家可以更加哈哈哈.妙哉.

Sota - 2010年02月24日 19:01

All animals are fair but some are more fair than others...

applies to both "communist" or the "capitalist" society! The question is who is in charge! Don't be naive the public in the US are in charge lar (look at the fat fat ibankers and you know. Still don't get it? Go back to the 60s and asked those who witnessed the assassination of JK Kennedy! Don't be a good boy. SHOT YOU TO DEATH!)

Daniel - 2010年02月24日 19:23

........I am sure these are all legit 心理戰.
[新世界鄭家購「名鑄」.....各單位業權的持有方式甚迂迴,股權大多數由離岸公司持有,登記董事為代理人公司,而鄭家純等人則出任代理人公司的董事。]

Daniel - 2010年02月24日 19:24

.....They can improve or cover it up more with 鄭家 buying into X 家 hot properties (and vice versa of course to balance the book)

ac241428 - 2010年02月24日 21:35

小學生前輩, your comment below is too deep for me.
Is it possible to elaborate in simpler way ?

金融和交易,只要閣下,,,當是人類宗教行為的一種,便明白神的確存在,人是摸不著頭腦的.

而且堅持自己先對,其他是(錯),人間其實很有趣,我喜歡交易行為,主要是人的本質會101%交足出來獻給大地和上天,使我們感恩.

Sota 前輩, the comment you made is very hard to accept for most people. Even though it's the truth.

Don't be a good boy. SHOT YOU TO DEATH!

like myself, under the mainstream education which teached you to be civc responsinle, work hard, contribute to the society.

It takes me very long time to time to realize and to face the reality.

even now, i am still not sure whether the world is so evil.

maybe it's just what nature is as depicted in animal planet.

I am a 70+ and still so confused,I could imagine how the 80+ would feel.

So sad.

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 23:05

241428兄,當您feel sad,便是因為being confused by the reality and your 學校家庭社會傳統認知的gap,歸到基本,其實我們出生來到香港,和所有人類其實一樣是生存下去和繁衍下一代而矣.

其它只是因為心中給外在影響下,而出現要求,要要求便先要有比較的目標坐標標準,這便是煩惱的來源,所以在閣下feel sad 時,先要求心中安寧)任何宗教和哲學都可以幫到大家,因為從中您不會再和其它人們比較,心中滿足在思考到人是可以隨偶而安,找到心靈慰直,人踏實了,思想定了,再深入哲學宗教的思考沉積後,再回來認識社會所有的現實便會如夢初醒,明白世界言文的真偽和其哲理原由,到時,您慢慢找到應對外圍的(心得),而心通tau清爽得很,智慧出來,找到社會上D成功人的原因和可能性,有何機會可以給自己學習的,這時通常您令成為積極快樂的傻仔〉i really mean 傻仔,因傻仔不sad,但依然心中存在大量熱情.........下面我不說了.......有緣的便給選中,選不到也快樂和很busy.拜拜

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 23:13

金融和交易,只要閣下,,,當是人類宗教行為的一種,便明白神的確存在,人是摸不著頭腦的.

而且堅持自己先對,其他是(錯),人間其實很有趣,我喜歡交易行為,主要是人的本質會101%交足出來獻給大地和上天,使我們感恩.

這要在您有十年哲學經歷調出交易心法之後再實行十年在市場中,而且見很多[傻人]),可以明白清楚D,也不一定要明白,因為我便是傻的,您才是一切.

Sota - 2010年02月24日 23:33

241428兄,

Sorry for my harsh wording. I grew up in some terrible environment, leading to a whole lot of contrary and conspiracy theories even when I was a kid! And faced very harsh real world even I behaved well. I started to do my own research and studies outside the mainstream syllabus...since very young, and keep my ears and eyes open...

I understood your feelings but sorry to say most of you were fooled by teachers! They surely teach all kinds of orthodox knowledge to their students. How could anyone teach his students that democracy could also be bad! (and communisms also had its good time...I remember I traveled to the mainland very young. Grass was green! People were simple minded. NOT a sense of the materialistic manner as nowadays!).

This is what I worry about the 80s or even the 2000s. Yes they seem to learn a lot but their knowledge were taught by nice teachers and parents and not "evil" guys such as us! To them the world could be and should be much better. To me it is what it is. I try hard to survive, to look for investment opportunity and to enjoy (I agree to a much elder friend who told me that U are already lucky if there is one thing which does not obstruct your way!)

小學生 - 2010年02月24日 23:42

明白世界言文的真偽和其哲理原由.
便是可以容易一些真正明白info/data/news,不會捉錯用神.

壹一 - 2010年02月25日 00:28

Up mud chuen?

壹一 - 2010年02月25日 00:28

Up mud chuen?

壹一 - 2010年02月25日 00:32

Up mud chuen?

Chan David - 2010年02月25日 12:34

Sota hing: don't know if you will read this. Anyway, the problem of Communisim, from my 2 cents, is more on the wrong underlying assumption that uncertainty can be eliminated and efficiency can be 100%. That's the ground they go for a rather planned economy approach.

Sota - 2010年02月25日 12:46

David hing, fully agreed with U on this point.

However, don't U think it was interesting to see everyone could be so naive in believing Chairman Mao and headed for the same goal (such as ironing the steel and planting!). It may be correct to say that it was the mass majority who "elected" the CCP rather than KMT in the 1930s to 1950s! They actually won in the "referendum" back then!

Chan David - 2010年02月25日 21:50

Sota hing: Yes. It is interesting that democracy can "mal-function" like such in such situation.

It is not news actually, even during the ancient Athen they did have the period of fools/mediocracy due to manipulation on election system by politicans.

吴清心 - 2016年03月19日 01:19

不好意思,借貴壇的人氣來聲討信報論壇網管和編輯的胡作非為,打擾了請勿見怪! 關於:“信報網站論壇的三宗罪”被刪帖一事,再被論壇內部網管人員

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侈哆

Liberphile等人

假冒壇友(查其壇內空洞無文)

連續跟帖10多個蓄意以莫须有的:五毛、宣傳不道德或某信仰主義去誤導他人神功戲、貼文怪異、、等等言論來蓄意抹黑、惡毒攻擊本港土生土長的著名詞曲作家音樂製作人吳清心先生,意圖隱瞞其(網管、編輯)心理變態和無能真相--信報論壇不少言論主觀偏颇欠中立、網管、編輯無能和素質低下,自甘墮落,讓其他壇友一同起哄(我哋今日去邊度搵靶射?),可謂心狠手辣惡毒至極。

 

針對本港土生土長、真心的愛國愛民愛心音樂家吳清心先生的無理刪帖行為早已開始:見一貼刪一貼,諸位可以在本人論壇中發現真相。

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