內地人口红利即将消失

《科学》杂志为此专门在20110729出版的最新一期杂志上就人口问题发表了一组封面专题文章。复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院院长彭希哲教授应邀为《科学》杂志撰写了题为“中国人口变动的过去与未来的挑战”的综合评述。
source http://www.cssn.cn/news/387629.htm
  该论文指出,中国正处在人口变化的历史转折时期:从一个农业人口占绝大多数的社会转变成一个城市主导的社会,从年轻的社会转变为老龄化社会,成为一个人口大量流动的社会。中国政府的各项与人口相关的政策是推动人口转变的关键因素,而社会经济发展和人们生活方式的转变等也直接推动了人口转变的完成。中国过去30多年经济的高速增长得益于人口发展模式的转变,我们正在收获人口红利。
  彭希哲在文中引用了有代表性的人口预测结果,对中国未来人口总量和人口结构的变化趋势进行了比较研究。在不同的人口政策和生育水平的假设情境下,中国人口总量未来变化的差异巨大,峰值人口为13.5亿到16亿以上,表现出显著的不确定性。中国人口的年龄结构将继续向老龄化转变,整体老龄化的趋势不可逆转.
他认为,中国已经成功地扭转了人口过快增长的趋势,但未来面临的与人口有关的挑战也更加严峻。
Reading mainland article one needs to read between the lines and locate things that has been avoided.
Mainly it does not mention that by 2020-2025 the number of retirees will outnumber the working population (mainly the work force from one -child policy period).
The mainland has been enjoying demographic dividend (workers in prime age with few retirees) given the huge population expansion between 1950-1976 as Mao had been pushing for more population to bury the U S imperialists. Those born between 50-76 are heading into retirement age and their pension provision has not been budgeted for. Of course it will be serious 严峻.

所有評論

金钱自主 - 2011年08月08日 17:09

Daniel,don’t get too carried away by traditional school emphasizing population dividend or the indicator ratio: working population / retiree population. I have to say this concept is confined to export oriented economy in which manufacturing dominates. This emphasizes the more people the better.
No doubt labour force is an important resource for an economy, but it cannot tell the complete story. We have to look at ‘capital’, which is also an import attribute of economic resource. We may be haunted by Japan’s loss of economic direction – the so-called the lost 20 years. However, the huge retiree population beside provides a solid consumer pool, is also a reliable pool of fund. You can simply verify with visitors returning from Japan that consumer products are still very expensive and new products are rolling out into market continuously. That means an aged country is not a dead country. Mind you that the majority of Japan’s national debt goes in to Japanese hands the majority of which belong to the silver heads.
Beside a source of labour, the huge population of China is also a solid market potential. When this population gets aged, their capital, which is fuelled by the exceptionally high saving rate of China, will get significant. The central provident fund side by side in China will also be a huge capital source fuelling the economy growth.
I am not that pessimistic with the so called loss of population dividend. It is totally up to the government how to redirect the economy from an export oriented one to a self contained huge market.

Daniel - 2011年08月08日 21:58

...[[金钱自主 ...I am not that pessimistic with the so called loss of population dividend.]]
Points taken. I had the same idea too until I read a book from Harry Dent who based all his idea on demographics (1993 Great Boom ahead....the huge retiree population beside provides a solid consumer pool,).
Also the mainland is following exactly the path of Japan of the 80s with huge US debt and stagnant economy (aging).
In density term, Japan is as huge as China in population so the idea ( of huge population will create a booming economy) does not stand

Daniel - 2011年08月08日 22:02

...[[金钱自主 .....The central provident fund side by side in China will also be a huge capital source ]]
That for a closed currency does not mean anything at all dumped together with general revenue.
I have not had a figure of the provident fund too and I think it is puny if not non-existent.
You can say that it is backed by the asset (mainly US$ denominated) but the printing press is located in the U S not in China.

Daniel - 2011年08月08日 23:16

...金钱自主 ..this is why I think demographics is the key to understand the problem of the mainland and Japan now.

The basis of Harry Dent's research is the highly predictable nature of consumer spending based on a family's formation pattern: minimal spending as young adults, increased spending while rearing children, peaking their spending as their children leave home, and then slowing spending during the last 15 years of working life (48-63) while saving more and preparing for retirement.

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