習廣思's 的頭像

資深投資者。金融打滾數十年,樂意與讀者分享投資心得。

最佳分析員:歐洲迷失十年

 ■繼年初至今準確預測全球經濟形勢後,白頭任昨天再預言歐洲將步入「迷失十年」,未來經濟只能以低速增長。 (資料圖片)

《信報》信筆攻略:......女股神10月初轉軚變悲觀,預料恒指將跌穿15000點,豈料恒指10月開始大反彈;但誰又記得,女股神由年頭開始提醒閣下,貨幣戰爭金融漩渦令人悲觀。「最準分析員」變基金經理後,貫徹大好友作風,緊守基金經理不該唱淡守則,由年初樂觀至年底,2月北非政變後買貨,8月美國降級後買貨,11月歐債後再買貨。看對與看錯,或者只是媒體與讀者太過上心,去年因沽成名,被喻為「賺錢之神」的保爾森,其旗艦基金至11月虧蝕50%,如今投資世界的回報,怎麼可以有保證?

今年至今,最佳分析員可能是白頭任。去年10月,任志剛提出金融亂象百年一遇,美國QE製造熱錢四出流竄,炒到(資產價格)㷫烚烚,經濟不好之餘,破壞性可能很大。有心或無意都好,恒指在去年10月見頂,進入超過半年的上落格局。

7月時,白頭任警告,整個金融體系已響起警號,市場出現一定程度的失效,歐債愈拖,麻煩愈大;要保住歐羅貨幣聯盟,強大成員國必須忍痛承擔政治壓力,而在歐債風暴下,投資市場環境亦一定不佳。事到如今,金融世界生命衰弱,歐債的殘局依然未收拾。

白頭任昨天再發表的觀點是,歐洲步入下一個「迷失十年」,也不教人感意外。其看法只有幾句,但有三點:第一點與索羅斯看法相同,歐債問題嚴重,但監管機構「偏偏」要求銀行資本水平不斷提高,窒礙經濟復蘇步伐;第二點,當歐債債息再度飆升後,各國政府擔心財政狀況,才會正視問題(換句話說,上周峰會結果仍未真正正視問題);第三點,現時只有歐央行才有能力解決當前金融危機,但基於政治壓力,歐洲領袖難以同心合力。

歐央行如何救?為何會陷入另一個「迷失十年」?說穿了,美國和歐洲都正在踏上日本舊路,歐洲QE不QE都未必改變這結局,財政緊縮將導致歐洲進入另一個非常低增長的時期。

歐羅滙價在10月底一度突破200天平均線,事實證明當然是假突破,但自10月底後,加碼版「歐洲金融穩定方案」被批評火力不夠,歐羅自1.4水平連連下跌,執筆時報1.3197水平,也正是9月底低位。事實上,歐債落得如斯地步,歐羅之強甚沒道理,這次能否守得住?相反,美滙指數在9月底、10月底均在79.5水平收兵,這次會否攻破挑戰81水平?
(節錄)
全文

所有評論

Spa - 2011年12月14日 08:01

The bad news:
“The summit failed to satisfy the first (and maybe not the second?) of even the minimum necessary conditions to give the Euro a chance of medium-term survival. These are (i) creation of a fiscal union, which will take at least one to two years to set up, and (ii) unlimited ECB lending to bridge the gap between this multi-year political timetable and a market timescale measured in weeks or months. While the ECB may still end up being more pro-active than Mario Draghi suggested last week (see next page), the summit's most obvious failure was on the fiscal front. Despite the self-

congratulation among EU politicians about their "fiscal compact," the fact is that Germany vetoed the most important characteristic of a true fiscal union, which is some degree of joint responsibility for sovereign debts. Since Germany refused even to discus Eurobonds or a vastly expanded jointly-guaranteed European Stability Mechanism, the summit did nothing to reassure the savers and investors in Club Med countries that their money will be protected from either devaluation or default.

Secondly, the summit raises huge political uncertainties. With the UK failing to climb on board, an intra-governmental deal will need to be arranged outside the EU legal framework. Will all 17 countries in the EMU ratify the new treaty and how long will this take? Will Ireland be able to avoid a referendum in a period when Europe is viewed by the public as a hostile colonial power? Will all 17 members insert German-style debt-brakes into their constitutions to the satisfaction of the German courts? If a country fails to legislate or implement an adequate debt-reduction programme, will it be expelled from the Euro? If so, can the Euro be described as "irrevocable" any longer and does it really differ from any previous fixed currency peg? Worst of all, perhaps, how will this deal affect French politics? If Marine Le Pen and Francois Hollande denounce Merkozy's "fiscal compact" as a betrayal of French sovereignty and democracy, then this agreement will be worthless until after the French presidential election on May 6.

Thirdly, and most decisive in the long run, is the economic and political incoherence of what Merkozy are trying to do. Even if the fiscal compact could be immediately put into practice, even if it contained provisions for joint-liability debts and even if the ECB backed it with unlimited monetary support, it would aggravate the Club Med's economic nightmare of unemployment and economic stagnation. Small open economies such as Ireland and Sweden may be able to deflate their way out of a debt crisis, but for large continental economies in the Eurozone this is arithmetically impossible. In this respect at least, Keynes's key insight of the 1930s—that workers and taxpayers are also customers—remains as relevant today as it was then. By imposing permanent austerity, the fiscal compact guarantees permanent depression—and that in turn guarantees that the citizens of Europe will eventually turn against Merkozy and the Eurocrat elites.” (Sorting Out the Euro Mess, by Anatole Kaletsky, Charles Gave, Francois Chauchat – GaveKal)

Read the full article to find out the good news.
Outside the box

Spa - 2011年12月14日 08:08

Western Germany bailed out the Eastern Germany in the unification. That was a bold, admirable and successful act. But would it bail out Italy, Spain, ... and France?
Even if it wants to, would the bail out (which undoubtedly included many harsh conditions) be viewed as a help or a kind of superimposition or even "invasion" by those to be bailed out?
Would Cameron's "stupidity" be viewed as an example of "bravery" then?
Who knows?

Daniel - 2011年12月14日 09:19

....[[為何會陷入另一個「迷失十年」?說穿了,美國和歐洲都正在踏上日本舊路]]
The tone of the 'doomed west' is everywhere courtesy of the propaganda apparatus . re 迷失十年 The fact that economic growth has reached a plateau speaks volume about the rapid growth in earlier decades.
Japan/HK/Taiwan went through from the post war US100 - $20000 very fast particularly Japan whose education level is best in the region. And now they are in $35000 territories and of course the pace has slowed down.
BTW the mainland is in $10,000 level and the chorus of the media has pointed to it breezing through to $20,000 and $30,000 in a straight line. Of course hardly anybody mentions the end of the demographic dividend , environmental constraints and loss of export market in the west....

Daniel - 2011年12月14日 09:23

...Spa...There is only one Germany (not E or W). They did the close to impossible in such short time indeed (since 1989). That speaks volume about the economic performance of the former Soviet regime in pirating the satellite states in E Europe. Poland is a great example and before this slow down had had very respectable growth figure too even when majority of the government died in a plane clash.

金弓 - 2011年12月14日 10:24

「女股神由年頭開始提醒閣下,貨幣戰爭金融漩渦令人悲觀。」
這或許是事實,但那又說明什麼問題?看那些分析專家的拿手好戲,不就是頻頻修訂自己的預言?
張公道說:「若然大勢有變,本欄將立刻修訂此一看法。」
拿修訂前或修訂後來作佐証,總有一個是正確的。

金弓 - 2011年12月14日 10:32

女股神年頭就宣稱悲觀,卻直到10月初,才再次轉軚變悲觀。
這說明1〜9月,女股神一邊宣稱悲觀,一邊頻頻入貨。
從這吊詭的現象,或許可以得出結論:女股神要麼是騙子,要麼是患了「大腦指揮不了小腦」的疾病。

ccue - 2011年12月14日 18:31

所有神, 大師, 專家, 都錯了

放在眼前的己是 :

「迷失十年」是中國,
步日本舊路的也是中國.

看看今天日月報吧, 在阿爺扭曲下, 這十年中股跑在最後

吴清心 - 2016年03月21日 07:01

不好意思,借貴壇的人氣來聲討信報論壇網管和編輯的胡作非為,打擾了請勿見怪!。。。。。 關於:吳清心早前發表的 “信報網站論壇的三宗罪”被論壇內部網管人員

蜻蜓88
石亦雲

文見亂

Sammy699

侈哆 

Liberphile

等人

假冒壇友(查其壇內空洞無文)

連續跟帖10多個蓄意以莫須有的五毛宣傳不道德或某信仰主義去誤導他人神功戲貼文怪異、、等等言論來蓄意抹黑惡毒攻擊本港土生土長的著名詞曲作家音樂製作人吳清心先生意圖隱瞞其網管編輯心理變態和無能真相--信報論壇不少言論主觀偏頗欠中立網管編輯無能和素質低下自甘墮落讓其他壇友一同起哄我哋今日去邊度搵靶射?),可謂心狠手辣惡毒至極然後該貼再被刪除

 

針對本港土生土長真心實意的愛國愛民愛心音樂家吳清心先生的無理刪帖行為其實早已開始見一貼刪一貼諸位可以在吳清心論壇中發現真相

 

附注一

劃破黑暗的時代 指引光明的路向《回歸浪漫的世界》“萬家燈火 驅散黑夜, 走向光明  共同尋找”是純紫攜手吳清心正在演繹的動人新曲《回歸浪漫的世界》其中一句重要的歌詞內容。以純紫吳清心為靈魂人物的以諾歌唱音樂藝術文化團隊,在這個黑暗的世代,正在克服種種艱困地勇闖光明的路向,要帶領這個時代的人們在黑暗中劃出一道破口,讓光芒照耀,燃點人民新希望的曙光,越照越明亮,直至全球回歸浪漫的理想實現。 “愛心”、“公益”、“分享”是以諾陽光基金會及以諾文化傳播的核心文化,以諾的項目與使命包括:一)國家公益活動《為國謳歌》全國起動二)民族文化使命《浪漫的中華》環球巡演及三)國家民族任務《以愛之名唱響大美中國夢》下鄉獻愛心活動,加上為了配合我國新一代領導人全球戰略部署的是此活動《全球回歸浪漫香港起動》等,均是屬於愛國、愛民、愛地球的國家級、國際性和宇宙性高端事業。

純紫與吳清心去年12月在中國起動了為國謳歌公益巡演浪漫的中華--

福的惠州》,得到了國家機關中央媒體及各方鋪天蓋地持續兩個多月的報導及讚譽這次活動也正好在香港這裡舉行慶功宴感謝大家一同出席和祝賀這樣不可替代被譽為貼近國家新一代領導集體的治國理念和心聲的皇家御用音樂團隊兩位核心靈魂人物本港著名詞曲作家音樂製作人吳清心老師及國寶級歌唱家純紫小姐他們可謂是影響深遠的音樂家正在為國家為民族和為全人類地球村作出貢獻

 

純紫擁有非一般的天籟音色和音韻的結合可以挑戰宇宙最強音的歌藝成為地球上極少數具有靈性的真正天籟之音屬於中國的軟實力之一唱出和平友愛的中國信息到全世界為全球4500萬客屬人士為家鄉為香港為祖國及為本地樂壇爭光

純紫吳清心受讚譽愛國浪漫是永恆的主題http://ent.qianlong.com/2016/0104/242472.shtml

 

附注二

音樂救贖攜手傳遞愛的正能量:。。。而音樂家卻可以通過音樂演奏出一場無聲的教誨將愛傳遞給更多的人心中懷有愛的人創作出來的音樂往往可以帶給大家一場不同凡響的視聽感受在有限的創作時光中吳清心譜寫出了十幾首美妙動聽的音樂作品並迅速獲得了香港大眾的喜愛不僅如此專業領域也對吳清心創作的音樂給予了一致的贊許就像習主席在文藝工作座談會所說的那樣文學家藝術家只有在中國夢實踐中把自己當作群眾的忠實代言人耐得住寂寞才有可能創作出接地氣經得起時間考驗的精品

讓愛飛翔一場音樂知音的旅行吳清心和純紫他們正是用自己生命的積累和心血來創作了中國夢主旋律的系列文化歌曲

 http://www.newspaper365.org/yule/yinle/2014-12-17/10496.html

 

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